2009 Sun Bowl Point Spread: Stanford v Oklahoma (Oklahoma -10/Over-Under 55.5)


The El Paso Sun Bowl features the Oklahoma Sooners against the Stanford Cardinals. Oklahoma enters the game as 10 point favorites with the total points listed at 55.5. The Sooners entered the season with another National Championship game on their mind. Losing Sam Bradford in the first game of the season destroyed any chance of this team contending on the national level. Freshman quarterback Landry Jones guided the team much of the year. However, calling his play inconsistent would probably be an understatement. It would be their defense that kept this team competitive and lead them to a 7-5 record.

For the surprising Stanford Cardinals, it was all about senior running back Toby Gerhart. Gerhart ran over, through, and by much of the competition. Finishing 2nd in the Heisman voting, his season is the reason why Stanford finished with an 8-4 record. This game looks to be a classic example of a Stanford’s power running game versus Oklahoma’s running defense. The question is, which one will win out?

Losing Sam Bradford during the first game of the season forced Freshman Quarterback Landry Jones into a role he was certainly not ready for. Like any young quarterback, Jones went through a number of ups and downs. At home, he played well and could best be described as efficient. The team finished with a 6-1 record with Jones completing 62.1% of his passes and throwing 18 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. On the road, Jones played like most freshman quarterbacks do…bad. The team was 1-4 away from Memorial Stadium with Jones only completing 54.7% of his passing while throwing 7 interceptions to only 4 touchdowns. This game will be played on a neutral site in El Paso while not a home game, playing in the neighbor state should help the young quarterback.

The Stanford Cardinal offense revolves around their running game and running back Toby Gerhart. Quarterback Andrew Luck’s role is to “manage” the game or simply to hand the ball off to Gehart. Gehart leads the 11th ranked Cardinal running game with 1736 yards, 26 touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Gehart’s dominance can really only be weighed by what he was able to do against some of the better teams in the conference. Against the Pac-10’s best rushing defenses, Arizona, Oregon State, and Arizona State, ranked 21st, 24th, and 26th respectively, Gerhart played some of his worst football. His yard per carry average drops a full yard to 4.6 yards per carry and he had 3 of his 4 worst rushing games. Compared to what Gerhart has seen in the Pac-10, Oklahoma and their 7th ranked rushing defense, allowing 88.6 yards per game, is loaded with potential pros and is something Stanford has not seen on the defensive side of the ball this season. Expect Gerhart to struggle to find his rhythm.

The script for this game could not be simpler, Stanford and their running game versus Oklahoma and their defense. However, when does it every play out like that, especially with teams of different conferences? Look for the Oklahoma running game to play a big role in easing the pressure off quarterback Landry Jones, expect Bob Stoops to turn to his junior tailback DeMarco Murray and senior Chris Brown against the 60th ranked Cardinal run defense. Combined the two are averaging almost 4.5 yards per carry and have over 1300 rushing yards.

The Oklahoma Sooners enter the game as 10 point favorites. This season Oklahoma is 4-6-1 ATS and 2-9 in the O/U. The Stanford Cardinals are 7-5 ATS and 7-5 in the O/U. The Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December but 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite. Looking at the points, OVER is 4-0 in Cardinal last 4 games overall but UNDER is 5-0 in Cardinal last 5 games in December. The UNDER is 5-0 in Sooners last 5 non-conference games and 5-0 in Sooners last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. In the December, the UNDER is 8-1 in Sooners last 9 games.

Oklahoma vs. Stanford Sun Bowl Prediction:

Oklahoma covers the 10 and plays the UNDER. Oklahoma should be too much both offensively and defensively on the neutral site for Stanford. Landry Jones plays well enough went not in a hostile environment to score points and Stanford, behind running back Toby Gerhart, will find it very difficult to generate any consistent running game against the nations 7th ranked run defense. Pay little attention to Stoops and his recent struggles in bowl games, losing 5 of his last 6 games has zero barring on what and how this game will play out.